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Filling a Marner-size hole in regular season would be difficult for Maple Leafs
Let’s assume there’s a Maple Leafs world in 2024-25 that doesn’t include Mitch Marner. First, though, let’s be clear. If there does come a time when the Leafs and Marner go their separate ways, we’re not going to know for a while yet. The Leafs made it apparent on Friday that after years of playoff frustration under president Brendan Shanahan — who, naturally, remains in his position — they’ve finally come to the realization that the core as it stands isn’t going to win in the playoffs. Just don’t expect there to be a straight line between what the front office may have planned during the off-season and what actually happens. If it’s Marner that general manager Brad Treliving intends to move, Marner and his agent, Darren Ferris, will have that knowledge long before July 1, when the sides can negotiate on a contract extension. Any talks on July 1 and beyond won’t be necessary if Marner decides to waive his no-move clause. Somewhere, too, we should leave room for the idea that maybe, just maybe, Marner remains a Leaf next season and he can take another run at what would be his first 100-point season in the National Hockey League. There would exist the possibility, even small, that the Leafs wouldn’t find a trade to their liking, even though potential suitors will be lined up around the block at Scotiabank Arena. When the Leafs had their exit meetings last week, Marner said he wants to stay with Toronto for the longterm. Holding firm on his no-move clause is a distinct possibility. Back to the idea that Marner has played his last game in Leafs sweater, or will at some point in the next year. With 85 points in 69 games this past season, Marner was on pace for 101 points had he played in all 82 games. He hit 99 points in 2022-23, 97 the previous season and had 94 in 2018-19. He’s going to record 100 points, whether it’s with the Leafs or another team. There’s the rub if Marner is deleted from the roster. If you think the Leafs should be getting a premier defenceman in return in any trade involving Marner — and that’s what Treliving should demand because there’s not going to be a ton available in free agency — all of those points that Marner amasses in the regular season, those same points that have helped the Leafs attain lofty status in the Atlantic Division, will be gone. There’s no one on the Leafs roster now or in the pipeline who will replace those points, and expecting that collectively from several players would be a tall ask. Never mind that if Marner eventually is no longer part of the Leafs picture, the team would be in some trouble at forward if Auston Matthews or William Nylander was injured for any length of time. A potential Marner subtraction from the roster has to have been part of the interview process that Treliving is believed to have had with, at least, Craig Berube and Todd McLellan for the vacant coaching position. Regarding Matthews, of his franchise-record 69 goals in 2023-24, Marner had the primary assist on 25 and assisted on eight others. Full respect to the chemistry that Max Domi had with Matthews when the two were on the same line as Marner recovered from an ankle injury suffered on March 7. But Domi is no Marner. Marner’s failure to make a difference in the playoffs, most recently his paltry three points in seven games against the Boston Bruins, helped reinforce the opinion that changes must be made to the core. Beyond Matthews, Nylander, Marner and captain John Tavares, the group of forwards that the Leafs have under contract for next season includes Matthew Knies, David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, Ryan Reaves, Pontus Holmberg and Bobby McMann. Restricted free agents include Nick Robertson, Connor Dewar and Noah Gregor. Outside of Knies, McMann and Robertson, it’s not a pool of players overflowing with the potential for increased offensive production in the event that Marner is traded. If you’re counting on, say, Easton Cowan and Nikita Grebenkin to make the roster and tip the offensive scales, we would humbly suggest you’re probably seeking too much. If Marner is no longer part of the picture, Treliving will need to accomplish more than re-signing Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi, if either happens, to try to ensure more offence comes from the forwards. Said out loud, “changing the core” sounds pretty straightforward. Putting that into motion is not going to be easy, and if it happens with a Marner trade, there’s going to a regular-season hole up front that will be next to impossible to fill. We’re not saying changes are not required for the Leafs to make headway, once and for all, in the playoffs. There should be the reminder, though, that the regular-season bumps on the way to the post-season would bigger without Marner. tkoshan@postmedia.com X: @koshtorontosun Berube? Keefe? Arniel? Options aplenty as Jets search for next bench boss SIMMONS: Another shining toy for the remarkable, still young, Larry Tanenbaum
Berube? Keefe? Arniel? Options aplenty as Jets search for next bench boss
The Winnipeg Jets are doing their due diligence. They held a Zoom call with 2019 Stanley Cup-winning head coach Craig Berube on Tuesday and have expressed interest in former Toronto Maple Leafs bench boss Sheldon Keefe since he was let go in Toronto last week. While current Jets associate coach Scott Arniel may be the frontrunner for Rick Bowness’s vacated post as head coach of the Winnipeg Jets, the team is doing their due diligence in the open market that’s currently flush with quality. Anything else would be a dereliction of duty, and immediately hiring Arniel likely wouldn’t sit well with a fan base that’s experienced back-to-back first-round playoff exits. Ticket buyers want the team to explore every nook and cranny, and with names like Berube and Keefe, among several others, it’s essential to cast a wide net. When Bowness retired last week, Arniel made it clear that he wanted to succeed him. “They know my intentions, they know what I want, they know what I’d like,” Arniel said moments after Bowness announced his coaching career was over. “We’ll talk more. It really is in the early stage.” He’s been groomed for this moment ever since he was installed as Bowness’s associate coach two seasons ago—a choice the organization made. It made sense at the time, especially considering the Jets’ decision to bring Bowness out of semi-retirement in 2022. With his age and tenure in the game, it was clear he wouldn’t be a long-term fixture. The 61-year-old former Manitoba Moose bench boss could be viewed as a lateral move rather than a step forward. He filled in admirably when Bowness was away with COVID two seasons ago and again this year when Bowness was on leave tending to his ailing wife. You can credit him for running Winnipeg’s defensive corps. He’s also responsible for the team’s woeful penalty kill. Let’s examine the available candidates. Nearly a dozen options are listed, including veteran bench bosses, Stanley Cup winners, and the next generation. The Frontrunner Scott Arniel Age: 61 Head coaching experience: Two seasons (2010-12) Record: Regular season: 45-60-18 Last with: Current Jets associate coach Arniel hasn’t been a head coach in the NHL for more than a decade, spending parts of two seasons with the Columbus Blue Jackets between 2010 and 2012 before being fired midway through the latter campaign. On paper, he makes the most sense for the Jets. He won’t break the bank, something the Jets have been reluctant to do in the past. He has a good grasp of the situation in Winnipeg, and he’s familiar with the players, the culture, and the system they’ve played for the past two seasons. A long-time NHL assistant, Arniel has worked with the Rangers, Capitals and Sabres. He’s got history in this town dating back to his playing days with Jets 1.0, who drafted him 22nd overall in 1981 and was behind the bench as the head coach of the Mark Chipman-owned Manitoba Moose in their run to the Calder Cup final in 2009. Arniel led the Moose for four seasons, making the playoffs in each of those years, and spent one season with the Chicago Wolves in the same role. The Jets have a reputation for being extremely loyal, something that hindered them when Paul Maurice showed signs of fatigue the summer before walking out on the team in 2021. Getting this one wrong wouldn’t be viewed with forgiving eyes from the fan base, who are likely to view any failure as a self-inflicted wound at a time when they could have gone for a more prominent name. The Top Contenders Sheldon Keefe Age: 43 Head coaching experience: five seasons (2019-2024) Record: Regular season: 212-97-40 (.665); Playoffs: 16-21 (.432) Last with: Head coach, Toronto Maple Leafs One person’s rubbish could be another’s treasure. It’s one of the conversations being had around the league regarding Keefe, who handled the pressures of Toronto well but ultimately fell short when it mattered the most in the playoffs. Who’s to blame for that? For years, Toronto neglected their blue-line and crease, electing to sink about half of their cap space into what’s affectionately known in Leaf-land as the “Core Four” — Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander. Keefe, who won a Calder Cup in 2018 as head coach of the Toronto Marlies, put up impressive regular-season numbers, but his teams rarely raised their level in the playoffs. If the Jets feel Keefe was handcuffed by Leafs management and the salary cap, they offer him a world-class netminder and a much better defensive team than Toronto. Keefe has shown an ability to handle the brightest lights and some of the biggest names in the league. He’s a solid coach who some around the league feel his best days lay ahead of him away from the melting pot of Toronto. Craig Berube Age: 58 Head coaching experience: Eight seasons (2013-15 Philadelphia; 2018-2023, St. Louis) Record: Regular season: 281-190-72 (.584); Playoffs: 27-31 (.466) Last with: Head coach, St. Louis Blues Berube is reportedly one of two options to succeed Keefe in Toronto (the other being Todd McLellan). Known as a no-nonsense, direct guy with an ability to extract the best out of what he has, Berube led a last-place Blues team to the Stanley Cup in 2019. Speaking with the Toronto Sun earlier this week, former NHLer-turned-analyst Kelly Chase said Berube is the type of coach who is “going to ask you to play hard or you won’t play. And that (controversy) only has to happen a couple of times in the winter for it to be understood by every player come spring.” It’s a coaching style that can inspire the hell out of a team, but it can also lead to a team tuning out pretty quickly. Todd McLellan Age: 56 Head coaching experience: 16 seasons (2008-2015 San Jose; 2015-2018 Edmonton; 2019-2024 Los Angeles) Record: Regular season: 598-512-134 (.581); Playoffs: 42-46 (.477) Last with: Head coach, Los Angeles Kings There’s nobody with more NHL experience on this list, having coached 1,144 games over 16 years. He led the Sharks twice to the Western Conference Final and won a Calder Cup with AHL Houston back in 2003. He was an assistant to Mike Babcock with the Detroit Red Wings, winning the Stanley Cup in 2008. As mentioned, he’s reportedly one of two frontrunners for the Maple Leafs vacancy. McLellan is known for his defensive zone work on the teams he’s coached, yet it hasn’t translated into much playoff success in his most recent head coaching stints. Even going back to his days in San Jose, they never got past the third round. He’d be well-versed with Gabriel Vilardi, Alex Iafallo and Rasmus Kupari, whom he had in L.A. Jay Woodcroft Age: 47 Head coaching experience: Three seasons (2021-23 Edmonton) Record: Regular season: 79-41-13 (.643); Playoff: 14-14 (.500) Last with: Head coach, Edmonton Oilers Woodcroft is an interesting candidate. He arguably got the best out of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl of any coach that has worked with Edmonton’s two nuclear weapons (both had career years in 2022-23, with McDavid having 153 points and Draisaitl 128). But when goaltending went to crap this season, even those two couldn’t save Woodcroft’s job after the Oilers started the season 3-9-1. Woodcroft is still just a season removed from leading the Oilers to 50 wins, and helped Edmonton to the Western final in 2021-22 after becoming the head coach midseason. He’s an AHL champ with the Bakersfield Condors, and a Stanley Cup champ as a video coach in Detroit in 2008. Todd Nelson Age: 54 Head coaching experience: One season in the NHL (2014-15 Edmonton) Record: 17-22-7 (406-222-77 in 10 AHL seasons) Last with: Current head coach, Hershey Bears An assistant alongside Bowness in Dallas when Jim Montgomery was head coach, and then an assist to Bowness when the latter took the reins after Montgomery was let go. Prior to that, he had a cup of tea with the Edmonton Oilers, taking over after the team fired Dallas Eakins during the 2014-15 season. Nelson also worked as an assistant coach under Cheveldayoff with the Chicago Wolves. The 54-year-old is currently the head coach of the Hershey Bears in the AHL. who begin the divisional finals later this week. He was named AHL coach of the year for 2023-24. Gerard Gallant Age: 60 Head coaching experience: 11 years (2003-07 Columbus; 2014-2017 Florida; 2017-2020 Vegas; 2021-23 New York Rangers) Record: 369-262-4-70 (.576); Playoffs: 31-29 (.517) Last with: Head coach, New York Rangers. It‘s tough to get a grasp on Gallant. He worked wonders in Florida but was left on the side of the road one day. He then led an unlikely group of misfits in Vegas on their storied run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2018, only to be let go two years later. He then put up back-to-back 100-point seasons with the New York Rangers, but couldn’t get the team past the first round last season and was gone again. Gallant seems to be solid for two to three seasons. There’s not a lot to glean from after that. Given Winnipeg’s likely Stanley Cup window of three to four years, which coincides with the first half or so of the Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck contract extensions that kick in this fall, it could make some sense. Dean Evason Age: 59 Head coaching experience: Five seasons (2019-2023) Record: Regular season: 147-77-27 (.639); Playoffs: 8-15 (.348) Last with: Head coach, Minnesota Wild The man from Flin Flon comes with some local flair, but he also led the Minnesota Wild to a franchise-best points percentage in 2021-22, just before the organization’s massive dead cap hit handcuffed its ability to get better. Similar to Keefe, Evason did well with what he was given to work with. Perhaps even more so, given Minnesota with a single superstar in Kirill Kaprizov. Evason doesn’t lack competitiveness and is known for his hard-nosed coaching style. The Dark Horses David Carle Age: 34 Head coaching experience: None in the NHL Last with: Current head coach, University of Denver Carle is on record suggesting that any NHL team would have to make it worth his while to pull him away from the collegiate game, where he just led Denver to their second national title in three years, both coached by the 34-year-old. The right situation would be top of his list, along with a generous paycheck. He’s also slated to be the head coach of Team USA for the 2025 World Juniors, something he’d have to give up if he was to take an NHL gig. He led the Americans, captained by Jets prospect Rutger McGroarty, to gold in 2024. Don’t let his youth fool you – Carle is considered by many in hockey as one of the brightest up-and-coming minds in the game. You’d think he’s quite open to putting youth in positions to succeed at the NHL level, too. The Jets have several players who fit that bill. Ryan Warsofsky Age: 36 Head coaching experience: None in the NHL (105-47-18 in three AHL seasons) Last with: Current assistant for San Jose Sharks Like Carle, Warsofsky is the next generation of head coach in the NHL. He led the Chicago Wolves to an AHL title in 2022 and has been an assistant in San Jose for the past two seasons. Warsofsky interviewed for San Jose’s vacant head coaching position last week. He was passed over for the job when the Sharks hired David Quinn in 2022, with Warsofsky accepting an assistant role at the time. sbilleck@postmedia.com X: @scottbilleck
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